Executive Director of Global Info Analytics, Mussa Dankwa, has broken his silence following the sharp deviation between his firm’s pre-election predictions and the actual outcome of the just-ended National Democratic Congress (NDC) parliamentary primaries in Ayawaso East.

In a reflective but defiant post after the results were declared, Dankwa admitted that his projections failed to accurately capture the final verdict of delegates, conceding defeat but refusing to issue a formal apology or statement.

“In the just ended NDC primaries in Ayawaso East, I was handed a defeat 😄 but I will not issue any statement regardless,” he wrote.

Dankwa instead sought to rationalise the outcome by breaking down what he described as Model 1 predictions, which he said operated within a ±3 per cent margin of error.

According to him, Muhammed Ramni’s performance stood at 9 per cent, which he argued still fell within the model’s acceptable margin of error. Hajia Amina Adam, however, significantly underperformed when measured against the projections, securing 41 per cent compared to a predicted 50 per cent — an underperformance of 9 per cent, which Dankwa admitted was well outside the model’s error range.

On the other hand, Hon. Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed exceeded expectations. Dankwa said Baba Jamal was projected to secure 38 per cent (±3 per cent), which could have placed him at 41 per cent. Instead, Baba Jamal polled 45 per cent — a 4 per cent overshoot beyond the margin of error.

Dr. Yakubu Azindow and Najib Muhammed Sani, Dankwa maintained, performed largely in line with the predictions. In a Facebook post, he said;

“As what influence did what we saw had on the results, I leave to you people,” Dankwa added, concluding with the striking line:
“It took brides to defeat science and data.”

What He Said Before the Primaries

Dankwa’s post-election reflections stand in sharp contrast to his confident projections ahead of the primaries.

On February 5, the Global Info Analytics boss shared poll results on his Facebook page indicating overwhelming support for Hajia Amina Adam, widow of the late Ayawaso East MP, Mahama Naser Toure.

The poll, titled “NDC Primaries – Voters Preference,” suggested Hajia Amina was cruising to victory, topping the field by a wide margin.

The figures published at the time were: