Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Musa Danquah, says the ethnicities of delegates of Ayawaso East, particularly areas such as Nima, are historically people that normally vote for the National Democratic Congress (NDC).
According to him, demographic data from the constituency largely explains why the National Democratic Congress (NDC) continues to dominate the seat.
Speaking on TV3 Ghana as monitored by NewsDesksGH on March 3, ahead of the Ayawaso East by-election, he explained,
“If you look at Nima and its surroundings, largely about 24% of them are Mole Dagbanis. About 14% are Hausa speaking people. Chamba is about 12%. Akans 10%. Ga Adangme around 8%. The Kotokoli’s around 8%. The Ewe’s 4%.”
He noted that these communities have traditionally leaned towards the National Democratic Congress in elections.
“These are ethnic groups that traditionally vote for the NDC. That’s why Nima has always been an NDC stronghold.”
Global InfoAnalytics’ final poll ahead of the Tuesday, March 3, 2026 by-election projects a decisive win for the National Democratic Congress candidate, Baba Jamal.
“In the last election the NPP got about 28% of the polled in Ayawaso East, and the NDC polled around 71%. The current shows that NDC is doing around 75%,” he added.
He further explained that the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) projected decline is due to voter loyalty shifts.
“Only 88% of NPP voters have voted for their own. Whereas NDC is about 95%.”
Mr. Danquah added that broader national sentiment also appears to favour the governing party.
“To understand why NPP has gone down. If you look at the polling data, about 81% of the respondents say Ghana is headed in the right direction.”
He indicated that party affiliation in the constituency is also heavily tilted toward the National Democratic Congress (NDC).
“I don’t see a miracle happening in Nima. Around this time where the political environment really doesn’t favour NPP.”
The Ayawaso East by-election is happening today, Tuesday, March 3, 2026. Voting across the constituency’s 113 polling stations opened at 7:00 a.m. and is scheduled to close at 5:00 p.m.
